Market analysis of the electric car industry chain

About Chinese lithium battery Industry downstream applications

China's new energy vehicles (cars powered by new energy as the main, at present mainly refers to EV and PHEV) is one of the state-owned capital to control industry, its development from the production to the application is basically dominated by state-owned enterprises. Since 2009, experiencing a high open its development significantly lower walk process, time node about in July 2011, more than two years before the China new energy vehicles development enthusiasm, place ofspecial phenomenon can be seen everywhere, after rapid cooling by now. At present, new energy vehicles to go about China what kind of development model, the state-owned enterprise internal battleground, and at the same time, although the operation of various demonstration projects, but so far, Chinese enterprises have not developed the excellent electric vehicle products. In these ways, although the ministry and the ministry of science and technology, respectively, established in 2015 to 500000 and 1 million the ownership of target and are confident, but really lithium research thinks, these two goals are difficult to achieve.

The smart grid construction and development are in a full control of state-owned capital. Built in 2020, the Chinese government has determined to basic "strong smart grid", plans to invest hundreds of billions of funds, make the grid resource allocation ability, security level, operational efficiency and power grid and the power, user interactivity between increased significantly, at the same time to promote renewable energy development and utilization. For the stability of the renewable energy access, state grid and southern grid all hope to be able to use the electric car, the Chinese government also seems to support this idea, so in the future China electric car operation is possible in electric mode. The state grid and southern power grid in the beautiful scenery of the megawatt store lose test engineering, in order to obtain the relevant experience.

Entered since 2012, however, the major indexes in the field of China's economy is all-round downturn, deeper problems in the field of economy increasingly exposed, seemed to be inevitable risk of a hard landing of the economy; And local government debt, though some will be delayed for 4 years, but still like a ticking time bomb, could explode at any time. In addition, the debt of state-owned enterprises are not small. Statistics show, 123 central enterprises has the average ratio of 65%, some even break through the cordon of 80%.Look from these factors, therefore, for by the government, leading the development of new energy vehicles and the future of the smart grid, hardly optimistic.

Is electric bicycle may be a highlight of the lithium electricity industry chain development of mainland China. Electric bicycle production in China mainland are account for about 90% of the world, with mid-range products, this is China's economic development level and per capita income levels. Very little in this industry, the state-owned capital, is a higher degree of freedom of the market economy industry; The government too rarely, not like many other industries into "a tube die" position. Considering these factors, China electric bicycle industry is influenced by domestic political and economic situation will be relatively small, there is reason to develop better. Used for electric bicycle Power battery Lithium-ion batteries are scaled to replace lead-acid battery. True lithium research thinks, China four to five years will be completed such an alternative process.

China's 3 c electronic products industry is the world's largest, in mobile phones, digital cameras, laptops, tablets, and other fields, around 90% of capacity is concentrated in mainland China, it also makes the monopoly of mainland China 3 c lithium battery application of the global market. Although people of mainland China in the future. The development and change of the political, economic, and social environment have a certain degree of anxiety and worry, but extremely perfect and developed industrial chain system let the rest of the world at that time also will be hard to replace, in mainland China in the next few years will continue to be the first choice for the international giant production base. Local predominantly Shan Zhai, large Numbers of 3 c electronic products enterprises, after years of ebb tide after screening, changes in the environment at home and abroad, at the same time gradually out of the fortress mode, developing independent brands.

In general, the Chinese mainland in the next few years will still is one of the largest lithium-ion battery application market. In specific industry, however, Chinese companies as a follower not many changes, the role of institutional obstacles, application of technology improvement and improve for a long period of time will still be the biggest challenges facing the Chinese enterprises, and this kind of situation will clearly to a large extent influence the development of China's domestic lithium battery industry.

About the middle lithium battery manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing industry

Rely on half human, half mechanization BYD mode, make full use of its advantage of cheap labor, since the end of last century, China's lithium battery businesses sprung up, together with south Korean companies, the Japanese companies formed a huge pressure, peak in 2009 even once accounted for 30% of global market share. Have sprung up in this process, a large number of lithium battery companies, including BYD, BICK, LISHEN, ATL also squeeze into the global lithium battery companies such as top 10 list, strong. However, because of the industrial development of anarchy, after 10 years of crazy growing like a weed, the development of lithium battery industry in 2010 in mainland China

Appeared years began to decline, the decline in 2011, the situation is more serious, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises fail, at present has reached a reshuffle of the moment.

In the field of 3 c small battery, Japan and South Korea lithium battery enterprises not only moving production to China in succession, using China's cheap labor and resources cost, also began to increasingly use material of enterprise production in China, because of its large amount, purchasing price even lower than lithium battery enterprises in China. In this way, Japan and South Korea enterprise not only to consolidate its in the high-end market status of lithium batteries, are to the low end of the lithium battery market penetration. At the same time, the waning of Shan Zhai industry also in compressed Chinese enterprises' living space. Lithium battery only companies in China that many entrepreneurs face when China's accession to the WTO "dances with wolves" the vigor to bravely face the challenges of the Japanese and Korean enterprises, improve their technical level, the consistency and stability of the product, just can have a chance. True lithium studies suggest that China's 3 c small battery industry has the ability to be out of the woods now, usher in a new period of development.

In Power lithium battery, China in fact there is a good start, unit solid and universal at the beginning of this century began to embark on the related technology development work, and happen to coincide in 2005 began in Beijing and Hangzhou respectively before and after the commissioning of the bus electric bus, the worldwide are relatively early. In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, 50 electric bus scale trial operation is a success, it is the world's first large-scale trial run. Further, the 2010 Shanghai world expo 120 electric bus scale commissioning is successful. If in accordance with the foundation and development momentum, steadfast, China's road of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and power would be a bright future. This progress is not the case, however, the government's aggressive intervention has played a backlash.

In in 2009, the Chinese government began to vigorously promote the development of new energy vehicles of is given priority to with electric cars, hope in the field of automotive industry to realize "overtaking corner" after the great aspirations of China's new energy vehicle development present a "great leap forward", at that time, all the world, China's first power lithium battery industrialization project in China. But, in fact, two years down, overall progress rather than before, especially the technology progress.

Stretched now, because the Chinese government, "twelve five" period the government financial support to the development of new energy vehicles will be significantly weakened, really think lithium research, that is, in fact, China's electric vehicles and power lithium battery technology and industrial development of an opportunity, because speculators would interest, pull away, don't want to do of state-owned monopoly enterprises will gradually fade out, so that technology development and industrial development to a certain extent, go back to its normal orbit. From this perspective, the Chinese government has formulated the power battery development goals are more likely to achieve.

On the power battery development goals, the Chinese government has not yet been agreed, ministry of science and technology and the ministry formulated respectively have their own goals. According to the ministry of science and technology plan, China will be between 2010 to 2012, 100000 electric cars a year for supporting power lithium batteries and drive motor production capacity, to 2015, the Chinese mainland power battery capacity will reach 10 billion WH, car battery costs will reduce to 1.5 Yuan/WH level, at the same time increased to 120 WH/kg battery energy density, using temperature range - 25 ~ 60 ℃, the cycle life of the battery pack up to more than 2000 times. The ministry's goal is: 2015 type electric cars need energy power battery module, power type 15 billion WH / 3 billion WH/year (refers to the total amount).In terms of overall goal, the two basic consistent, is by the year 2015, car power battery does not depend on the state financial subsidies also can maintain the level of profit and loss balance.

In terms of power li-ion battery technology development route, in 2009 the Chinese government made clear support route and big batteries, lithium iron phosphate after mainland China only unit solid and Suzhou star constant taking manganese acid lithium line, other companies rush to develop the lithium iron phosphate. Premier Wen Jiabao in 2011 published requirements after cooling to the development of new energy vehicles, the relevant government department statement began to weaken, secretly in the industry also formed a critique of the lithium iron phosphate line trend. At the same time, taking manganese acid lithium line enterprises began to more up, universal and all have return to the intention of manganese acid lithium, gateway in Tianjin and Shanghai Kline also explicitly taking manganese acid lithium line. The BICK also began to try to route 18650 small batteries, have been identified to supply Dongfeng yulong electric car 18650 manganese acid lithium battery. So, after remove the human disturbance factors, power lithium battery technology development and finally returned to the "multiple routes simultaneously" normal orbit. Really think lithium research, for such a big country like China, a variety of routes simultaneously is necessary.

Worldwide in the lithium battery technology talent structure, it is not difficult to find that Chinese is the mainstream, the most core technology research and development of institutions and enterprises are all Chinese, Japanese and Korean technical personnel of enterprises in Chinese also occupy a considerable proportion. Since this century, more and more Chinese technical backbone began to return to mainland China to seek development, in these two years returning back faster, a marked increase, unit solid, former general manager of the guru, "Douglas, general manager of Hangzhou is one of the outstanding representatives. This part of the people and the Chinese local culture technology backbone, is now, the future will still is the core of China's lithium battery industry development power. In addition, private capital has been actually pay close attention to the development of the power lithium battery industry chain, including think there are a lot of practical work of entrepreneurs. In these ways, the prospect of China's lithium battery industry is very promising.

Look from the concrete enterprise, the existing well-known lithium battery enterprise will still is the backbone of the lithium battery industry development in China, such as Tianjin LISHEN, BYD,BICK, ATL, unit solid, universal, huanyu self, henan jinlong group, Harbin gyu, bond, Kay and so on, some large enterprise group's lithium batteries, has a strong financial support, also more promise, such as Chinaspecial industry corp., Chinaspecial lithium electricity,special science and technology group, the Shanghaispecial power, and its Shanghai card RGL resistance to new energy, jianlong heavy industry group, Tianjin gateway, Beijing automotive group of pride, and so on. In addition, China will come up to some notable, lithium battery enterprises with autonomous core technology, they are also hope to China lithium battery industry development.

About the upstream of the core material analysis

Lithium battery materials technology in China has made remarkable progress in recent years, when l began in Beijing on a large scale of the anode materials for Samsung SDI, Hunan Rui xiang, with Mr. Terry, Shanshan, new main bond, cathay Pacific warom, a batch of mainland China lithium battery materials such as jinhui high-tech backbone enterprises into the international giant system of supply chain, involves the cathode materials, anode materials, diaphragm and electrolyte, etc., presents the all-around development situation, maintained a strong momentum of development of a few years ago. Beijing when rise, Mr. Terry, Cathay Pacific warom has the global top three list into their respective fields. With China weak lithium battery industry development is different, in the field of materials development continue to present a boom over the past two years.

In four key materials in China mainland, cathode materials, anode materials and electrolyte has been fully realized self-sufficiency, and only the diaphragm material is not implemented, but development speed is very fast, really lithium research statistics show that its self-sufficiency rate of 2011 reached the 58. %, lithium battery enterprise began in 2012, Japan and there will be a certain amount of purchase.

Lithium battery key materials in China mainland industry reflects the main features are:

(1) the backbone enterprises of a growing share of the market at the same time, new entrants also emerge in endlessly, especially in the field of lithium iron phosphate, diaphragm and electrolyte, many of them new entrants considerable financial strength and technical strength (mainly returnees);

(2) in 3 c small battery materials of high-end products in the market, the international giant purchase quantity increasing at the same time, corporate profit margins in the material is more and more low;

(3) a large number of enterprise material products gathered in the field of low-end market, industry malignant competition;

(4) in the automotive power lithium batteries with the material market, China's self-sufficiency in a rapidly increasing over the past two years, but the overall technical level is low; And so on. From the perspective of the number of material enterprises, China has far more than the sum of the rest of the world the number more than 250.

And is similar in the field of lithium batteries, the existing of the backbone enterprises still is key to China's lithium battery materials the backbone of the industry development. At the same time, some technical strength of the new enterprise as well as some of the large enterprise group, material is also worthy of attention. The material in the four key areas, lithium here really not, for example, one by one .Is worth to mention is that the lure of broad market prospects, and under the push of government, more and more big state carrying power, money and resources advantages of entering key materials, lithium batteries for the development of the industry exactly is a good thing or a bad thing, it is difficult to determine.

In regard to the development of technology, many domestic famous universities and research institutions in the lithium battery key materials technology development on input power is more and more big, the research and development is more and more. Moreover, from the point of research content, follow the world trend, as in the rich lithium manganese base material (Japan called solid solution cathode material), lithium Titanate, graphene, etc., some of China's research and development institutions is made more obvious results. And some of the backbone enterprises through cooperation with the well-known universities and research institutions, cultivate a large number of technical personnel, technical ability increase rapidly. Therefore, related patent application quantity presents the fast growth obviously, some enterprises on the number of patents has been keep pace with the international giant, just remains to be further improve in terms of quality. At the same time, more and more overseas return home business, is also in China's mainland material ascending played a big part of the technical level of the industry as a whole, such as Qingdao up Sun Yucheng, grobbee DE Tianjiao technology, Suzhou constant is Douglas, and so on.

Look from the anode material development route, though the production of lithium iron phosphate material is not many, in the anode materials and the proportion of also is very small, but the Numbers from the enterprise or a clear majority. But lithium iron phosphate and not to the market at present, the period of the outbreak in the government under the actual status of the development of the electric car industry anticlimactic, some worry that this kind of situation that true lithium research: this many lithium iron phosphate enterprises can endure the day to blossom?

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