Jun 12, 2019 Pageview：15
In the current situation of changes in the industry, will 2018 become the first year of the explosion of high-nickel 811 materials?
In fact, due to the urgent demand for the introduction of high-nickel ternary materials by car companies and battery companies, the speed of advancement has been accelerating. Since the first quarter of this year, NCM811 materials have been in serious supply.
According to industry data, in the first quarter of 2018, the domestic output of ternary materials was 31,670 tons, an increase of 64.26%. Among them, conventional NCM models accounted for 78%, NCM622 models accounted for 14%, and NCM811/NCA accounted for 8%. Among them, the output of NCM811 has surged sharply.
Not long ago, the Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Ouyang Minggao clearly pointed out that Ningde era, Lishen battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other teams have basically achieved the development of 300 watt-hour / kg power battery.
“Our expert group made an optimized iteration on the development trend of technology battery technology (not based on the national battery technology roadmap, for reference only).” Ouyang Academician said that in 2020, the power battery has a specific energy of 300 watt-hours/kg. The specific power is 1000 watt-hours/L, the cycle is more than 1000 times, and the cost is less than 0.8 yuan/Wh. This is certain.
At this stage, the material corresponding to the high energy density battery is high nickel ternary.
"Everyone knows that we are now moving from nickel:cobalt:manganese ratio 3:3:3 to 6:2:2, and then to 8:1:1, which is gradually being realized." Ouyang Minggao stressed that nickel became 8, The cobalt is further reduced to 1, and even the cobalt is further reduced to 0.5. The negative electrode should be transformed from a carbon negative electrode to a silicon carbon negative electrode, which is a feasible direction for China's current power battery technology revolution.
Jin Yuantou Gu teacher analysis pointed out that once such a technical logic trend is established, it will be a relatively large negative for the pure cobalt mine enterprises, and will lead to an increase in the market value of the other nickel product suppliers.
The application of NCM811 in the field of power batteries is also speeding up, mainly due to the adjustment of subsidy policy, the continued high price of cobalt and the huge pressure on quality and cost reduction.
According to estimates, after using high-nickel materials, the overall unit cost of the battery has dropped by up to about 8%, and the cost advantage is obvious. The fluctuation in cobalt prices brought about by the contradiction between supply and demand is also helping manufacturers to shift to low-cobalt and high-nickel products.
Of course, on the other hand, Xu Aidong, secretary-general of the Cobalt Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said on May 17 that cobalt can be reduced in the ternary lithium battery system from the perspective of weight percentage or cobalt consumption per kWh, but not impossible. “Although the amount of cobalt used per kWh has gradually declined, the substantial increase in the base of new energy vehicles will still drive the total demand for cobalt to increase”.
Related listed companies
When Shengsheng Technology (300073) has a high nickel trend in the positive electrode industry in 2018, the industrial upgrading will inevitably bring a dividend period. This year, the subsidy tends to be a high cruising range. The subsidies for models over 300km will not fall back, prompting the domestic NCM811 positive demand to start to erupt. Currently, the industry 811 orders are in the growth momentum. At the same time, the price of NCM811 positive electrode per ton is about 260,000 yuan, higher than NCM622, the gap is 20,000-30,000 yuan, and the cost of NCM811 is less than the cobalt content, so the gross profit margin is improved. Enterprises with NCM811 positive sales capacity will fully benefit this year. .
When the positive materials of Shengli Technology Co., Ltd. develop steadily, the profitability of high-nickel products will gradually be reflected. The company's R&D team is strong, and the product upgrade and series layout are constantly carried out in the field of power battery. At present, the high-nickel 811 has been mass-produced, and there will be a certain scale of sales in 2018. It is expected to have a certain pulling effect on the company's profit level. In the field of small lithium batteries, the company's 4.45V high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide has been mass-produced, and high-voltage multi-materials have begun to be used on a large scale.
At the same time, the company is also paying attention to new technologies in the future, such as solid-state batteries. The company's positive customers are very high quality, and the top ten lithium battery companies in the world are customers of Dangsheng Technology.
We are optimistic about the outbreak of new energy vehicle sales and the accelerated industrialization of high-nickel cathodes brought by high-endurance mileage guidance. The contribution of the company's high-nickel products will gradually be reflected.
The page contains the contents of the machine translation.